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A Glitch or Real Voter Fraud

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Posted October 28, 2014

November Elections: Becoming a Ripple or a Wave?

The Congressional Generic Vote (how many will vote for a Republican or Democrat generic candidate) often tells an interesting tale. In 2010 it forecast the Republican takeover of the U.S. House. The mainstream media has been saying that 2014 is no wave election year.

Each week Real Clear Politics averages the Congressional Generic Vote. And it's getting interesting.

On August 27, Democrats lead Republicans by 1.4%; by September 3 Democrats lead shrunk to 0.5%. By September 10, Republicans were in the lead by 1.6%. By September 17, the Republican lead had increased to 3.5%. If this trend continues, the Democrats are in trouble.

In 2010 when Republicans swept the House, the generic ballot began shifting in early July in favor of Republicans and never looked back. By this time in 2010, Republicans had a +4.5% lead over Democrats and finished that year +9.4%.

Several difference over 2010 include stronger Republican Senate candidates and not as many opportunities to pick up House seats as Republicans and conservatives in particular have won many of those that were available.

Is a wave developing or is this just going to be a ripple election? The next few weeks will tell the story.

Posted October 20, 2014
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